
Niall Ferguson on the European Union - see also my Another Medal for the EUSSR:
I’m absolutely certain that Lord Mandelson and Daniel Cohn-Bendit
will tell you that the European experiment has succeeded because there
has been peace in Europe since it began in the 1950s. Can we just knock
that on the head? European integration has had absolutely nothing to do
with peace in Europe since World War II; that has been the achievement
of NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation]. The creation of the
European Union was not about war and peace, otherwise there would have
been a European Defence Community, and that was vetoed by the French
National Assembly in 1954.
[...]
Europe has to be judged in economic terms, since its own terms have
always been economic. And how did it do? In the 1950s the economy of
integrated Europe grew at 4 per cent. In the 1960s, it was about the
same. In the 1970s, growth was 2.8 per cent; in the 1980s, it slid to
2.1 per cent; in the 1990s, it was only 1.7 per cent: and so on, down to
zero.
As European integration has proceeded, its growth has declined. The
share of Europe in global GDP has fallen since 1980 from 31 per cent to
just 19 per cent. Since 1980 the EU has grown faster than the United
States in only nine out of 32 years. Never has its unemployment rate
been lower than the US unemployment rate.
Are any of you investors? What were the worst equity markets of the
last 10 years? They were Greece, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Portugal, the
Netherlands, and Belgium — the worst in the world. And on top of all of
this, we have monetary union — the ultimate experiment gone wrong.
We warned them, ladies and gentlemen. We said, if you have a monetary
union without labour market integration and without any fiscal
federalism, it will blow up. I predicted that in 2000. It is happening
in real time, in a chemistry lab, on the other side of the Atlantic.
But this was also a political experiment gone wrong. Do you know what
that experiment was? The experiment was to see if Europeans could be
forced into an even closer union — despite their wishes — by economic
means because the political means failed.
[...]
And when the European peoples voted against further integration,
their respective governments were told to try again. It happened to the
Danes in 1992, and to the Irish twice: in 2001 and again in 2008. Their
citizens gave the wrong answer in the referendum, so the governments
just held another one. This tells you something about why this
experiment has failed — it has failed because it has lost political
legitimacy. And we see this not only in Greece but in government after
government across Europe. Thirteen have fallen since this crisis began
two years ago, and more will follow in the months to come.
Read the full article here.
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